About
I hold a BS in Finance from University of Houston, Clear Lake. This archive predates any professional investment role. I have no coverage mandate, no client list, and nothing I am required to have an opinion about.
My coverage is concentrated mostly in energy and healthcare. The rest is opportunistic. I write on anything where I think I can build a view that the market has not already priced.
What this is
This is a dated public archive of my independent equity research. Each piece states a thesis, says what I believe that consensus does not, and lists the specific observable events that would prove me wrong. Nothing is edited after it is published. If I change my mind or get a fact wrong, that goes in the dated update log at the foot of the piece.
The site is a flat set of static files in a public Git repository. Every post carries a commit with a timestamp, which is the point: the dates here are checkable by someone who does not trust me.
I keep this record for my own discipline. It is public for transparency, not for an audience. It is not a newsletter, not a service, and not a business, and there is nothing here to subscribe to.
Process
The work is bottom up. Typically I will read the most recent quarterly filing before I read anything someone has written about a company. I would rather form a bad opinion of my own than inherit a good one. From there I build a ratio history from the last five years of filings and benchmark it against peer data.
The test I apply before publishing is whether I can name the specific observable events that would prove me wrong. If I cannot write that section, I have a preference, not a thesis.
Ideas come from no fixed process, yet. Building one is part of what this archive is for.
Whatever the process, three things are fixed. Every piece has a falsification section and it is never empty. Every piece discloses the position, including when there is no position. Every piece that turns out to be wrong gets marked Wrong and stays up.
Why wrong calls stay up
An archive that only contains the calls that worked tells you nothing about the person who wrote it. Selection makes any record look good. The useful question about an analyst is not whether they have been wrong, it is whether they noticed, how fast, and what they did next. That is only answerable if the wrong ones are still here with their original text intact.